Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sunderland's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Sunderland winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 56% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Sunderland 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.232 / defence 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.628 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.245. Data: 68 Newcastle games / 30 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 80% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Newcastle 1.84 / Sunderland 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.232 / def 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.628 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Sunderland kick off?
Newcastle vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle 1 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Newcastle vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Sunderland part of?
Newcastle vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 56% chance of winning, Sunderland a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Newcastle and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Sunderland in?
Newcastle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.23) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.63x) against Newcastle's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.81
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.81
0.97
Sunderland xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
35.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.97 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newcastle's recent record stands at 32W 12D 24L from 68 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 20L across 68 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Newcastle against 1.44 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 20W 4D 10L from 34 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.06 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 32W 12D 24L in their last 68 games (1.59 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 23D 20L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Sunderland away?
Newcastle's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.88 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sunderland in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Newcastle
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 56%, Sunderland 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Newcastle) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Newcastle's recent matches and 41% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Newcastle's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newcastle and Sunderland tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Sunderland attack 0.63 / defence 1.07, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.59 PPG, Sunderland 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.