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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sunderland have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Sunderland's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Sunderland winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 56% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Sunderland 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.232 / defence 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.628 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.245. Data: 68 Newcastle games / 30 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 80% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.

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