Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Burnley at City Ground in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Burnley's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nottingham Forest are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Burnley 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.688 / defence 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Nottingham Forest's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Burnley's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nottingham Forest's projected output up. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 70 games and Burnley's last 32.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.25 | Draw 3.11 | Burnley 4.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 30% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Nottingham Forest 1.33 / Burnley 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.688 / def 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.833 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Nottingham Forest 4 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Burnley part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 44% chance of winning, Burnley a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.69x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nottingham Forest's last 70 games and Burnley's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.11
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Burnley xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.91 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 27W 17D 26L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 27W 22D 21L from 70 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.40 PPG, Burnley on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 35 home games (12W 11D 12L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 14W 9D 12L from their last 35 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.26 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Nottingham Forest (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Nottingham Forest and Burnley in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 27W 17D 26L in their last 70 games (1.40 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 22D 21L in their last 70 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.34 PPG; Burnley away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burnley in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Apr 2026, when Nottingham Forest won Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Nottingham Forest 4-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Burnley?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 37%, Burnley 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Nottingham Forest) and 49% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 37%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 40% of games; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 49% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 49% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 69% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.33 xG and Burnley 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 32% | Burnley 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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