Newcastle 2-3 Everton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Newcastle face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Newcastle — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Newcastle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.30 PPG, Everton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Newcastle have won 3, Everton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Newcastle 4–1 Everton — a Newcastle win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Everton trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 55% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Everton 35%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.190 / defence 1.193 | Everton attack 0.906 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Everton bring a tight defence (rating 0.707, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Newcastle's projected output down. Data: built from Newcastle's last 65 games and Everton's last 65.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.41 | Draw 3.10 | Everton 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Newcastle 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Newcastle 1.18 / Everton 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.190 / def 1.193 | Everton attack 0.906 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Everton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Everton xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Everton FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle 2 - 3 Everton.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 29% chance of winning, Everton a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 65 games and Everton's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.10
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Everton xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.38 for Everton, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 30W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 21W 22D 22L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.57 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 32 home games (19W 4D 9L).
On the road, Everton have gone 12W 9D 11L from their last 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Everton
Blended
Newcastle (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Newcastle vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 30W 12D 23L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while Everton have gone 21W 22D 22L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.91 PPG; Everton away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Everton have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won Everton 1-4 Newcastle.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Newcastle
2
Draws
5
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 3, Everton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Newcastle 0-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Everton see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 53%, Everton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Newcastle) and 25% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Everton in 34%; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Newcastle's recent matches and 38% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newcastle and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Newcastle's recent games and 25% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newcastle and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Newcastle's recent matches and 59% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Newcastle 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Newcastle 2-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.19 / defence 1.19 against Everton attack 0.91 / defence 0.71, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Everton 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.57 PPG, Everton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 28
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →