Everton 2-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton have posted 2W 2D 6L at Hill Dickinson Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Everton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Everton, 1 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burnley trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Burnley 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton 36% | Burnley 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.791 / defence 1.091 | Burnley attack 0.891 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.298. Everton's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Everton games / 28 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Everton 1.52 / Burnley 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.791 / def 1.091 | Burnley attack 0.891 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Everton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Burnley kick off?
Everton vs Burnley kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Burnley?
Everton 2 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Everton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Burnley part of?
Everton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 41% chance of winning, Burnley a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Everton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Everton and Burnley in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.36
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Everton xG
Total xG
2.78
1.26
Burnley xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Everton and 1.26 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Everton have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 22D 22L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 27W 21D 18L from 66 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.33 PPG, Burnley on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.21 PPG from 33 outings (9W 13D 11L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 14W 9D 10L from 33 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 22W 22D 22L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 21D 18L in their last 66 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.21 PPG; Burnley away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Everton or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burnley in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Everton
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Burnley?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 48%, Burnley 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 48% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Burnley in 39%; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games; Burnley in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton's recent matches and 48% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 48% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Burnley tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Burnley in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Burnley 2-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Burnley attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 36%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.33 PPG, Burnley 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.