🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Everton (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Burnley.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Everton host Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Everton have posted 2W 2D 6L at Hill Dickinson Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season.

Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Everton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Everton, 1 for Burnley and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Everton trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Burnley trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Burnley 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton 36% | Burnley 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.791 / defence 1.091 | Burnley attack 0.891 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.298. Everton's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Everton games / 28 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Burnley 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights