Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle in Premier League (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bournemouth stand at 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Newcastle's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Newcastle, 2 for Bournemouth and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Newcastle 0–0 Bournemouth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 57% and Bournemouth 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 63% | Bournemouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.65 xG and Bournemouth 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.173 / defence 1.272 | Bournemouth attack 1.081 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.255. Newcastle's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Data: built from Newcastle's last 70 games and Bournemouth's last 70.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 35% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.83 | Draw 3.80 | Bournemouth 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newcastle 80% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 35% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Newcastle 1.65 / Bournemouth 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.173 / def 1.272 | Bournemouth attack 1.081 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Bournemouth xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Newcastle 1 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Bournemouth part of?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 35% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.17) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 70 games and Bournemouth's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.80
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.38
1.73
Bournemouth xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.73 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 32W 12D 26L from 70 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 19L across 70 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 20W 4D 11L from their last 35 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 11W 14D 10L across their last 35 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.51 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 63%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
Newcastle (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 32W 12D 26L in their last 70 games (1.54 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 25W 26D 19L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Bournemouth away?
Newcastle's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.83 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth.
Newcastle's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Newcastle
6
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Newcastle at 57%, Bournemouth at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Newcastle and 74% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Newcastle's games and 74% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Newcastle and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Newcastle's matches and 74% of Bournemouth's.
Do Newcastle and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Newcastle's recent matches and 86% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Newcastle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.65 xG and Bournemouth 1.73 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.17 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 35% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 63%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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