Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leeds at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leeds face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nottingham Forest make the trip to Elland Road to face Leeds in Premier League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Leeds's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Leeds have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nottingham Forest away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Leeds against 1.10 for Nottingham Forest. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Leeds, 2 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Leeds 1–3 Nottingham Forest — a Nottingham Forest win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leeds — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 48% versus Nottingham Forest 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 53% | Nottingham Forest 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.001 / defence 1.173 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.905 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.263. Data: built from Leeds's last 24 games and Nottingham Forest's last 62.
Result probabilities: Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 2.84 | Draw 3.16 | Nottingham Forest 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leeds as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leeds if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leeds's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leeds 80% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Leeds 1.38 / Nottingham Forest 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.001 / def 1.173 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.905 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Leeds (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Leeds vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Leeds 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Leeds vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 35% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Leeds and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leeds vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Leeds's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.91x) against Leeds's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Leeds's last 24 games and Nottingham Forest's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.16
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.72
1.34
Nottingham Forest xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Leeds and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Leeds and 1.34 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leeds come into this having played 62 games, going 31W 18D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.47 PPG from 62 outings (26W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Leeds against 1.47 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Leeds's home form reads 21W 7D 3L across their last 31 home games, a 2.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leeds are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.32 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Leeds (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leeds
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Leeds and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 31W 18D 13L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 13D 23L in their last 62 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Leeds's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.26 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Leeds or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Leeds and Nottingham Forest, the earliest from February 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Leeds have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Leeds
0
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Leeds have won 3, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Nottingham Forest?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 48%, Nottingham Forest 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Leeds and 58% for Nottingham Forest. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leeds vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leeds and Nottingham Forest matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Leeds's recent matches and 48% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leeds and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Leeds's matches and 58% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Leeds and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Leeds's recent matches and 81% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 35% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 33%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 53%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.79 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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