Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Nottingham Forest take on Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Crystal Palace travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at City Ground this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Nottingham Forest have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Crystal Palace 0, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 43% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Crystal Palace 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.831 / defence 1.026 | Crystal Palace attack 0.894 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.262. Data: 61 Nottingham Forest games / 61 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 31%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Crystal Palace 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 30% | Crystal Palace 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.22 / Crystal Palace 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.831 / def 1.026 | Crystal Palace attack 0.894 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Crystal Palace xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 34% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
Record (7 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 5 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.83x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
35%
2.85
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
Crystal Palace xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.16 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 12D 23L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crystal Palace sit at 1.33 PPG from 61 outings (20W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.48 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Crystal Palace have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 12D 23L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 20W 21D 20L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Crystal Palace away?
Crystal Palace's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.43 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
6
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 37%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nottingham Forest) and 47% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 37%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 47% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at City Ground, Regular Season - 24, as Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Crystal Palace attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.48 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.