Ipswich 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 35%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ipswich vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ipswich welcome Fulham to Portman Road Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Portman Road Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Fulham and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 54% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 54% | Fulham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 0.97 xG and Fulham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.792 / defence 1.130 | Fulham attack 0.722 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.274. Ipswich's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Ipswich games / 43 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 32% | Draw 33% | Fulham 35%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Fulham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Portman Road Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 32% | Draw 33% | Fulham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Ipswich 0.97 / Fulham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.792 / def 1.130 | Fulham attack 0.722 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Fulham (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fulham xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Fulham kick off?
Ipswich vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Portman Road Stadium.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Fulham?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Ipswich vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road Stadium.
What competition is Ipswich vs Fulham part of?
Ipswich vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 32% chance of winning, Fulham a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ipswich and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 2 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
32%
3.16
33%
3.04
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.01
1.04
Fulham xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.0 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.04 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 11D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (15W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ipswich's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Fulham away?
Ipswich's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.10 PPG; Fulham away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fulham in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
From 3 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 1, Fulham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Ipswich 2-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Fulham?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 45%, Fulham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ipswich) and 45% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Fulham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ipswich's recent matches and 45% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ipswich's recent games and 45% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Fulham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fulham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ipswich defy the odds to beat Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Fulham 2-1 at Portman Road Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.97 xG and Fulham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Fulham attack 0.72 / defence 0.86, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 32% | Draw 33% | Fulham 35%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ipswich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, Fulham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.