Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Nottingham Forest (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crystal Palace face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crystal Palace — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crystal Palace have posted 2W 3D 5L at Selhurst Park — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Nottingham Forest's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0, Nottingham Forest 2, with 6 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Nottingham Forest 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 56% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Nottingham Forest 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.951 / defence 1.373 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.220 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.276. Nottingham Forest have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Crystal Palace games / 43 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 23% | Nottingham Forest 54%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Nottingham Forest 1.85. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 70% | Nottingham Forest 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 23% | Nottingham Forest 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Crystal Palace 1.39 / Nottingham Forest 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.951 / def 1.373 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.220 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Nottingham Forest xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Crystal Palace 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 24% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
Record (8 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 6 | Nottingham Forest 2W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.95) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 2.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
24%
4.23
23%
4.43
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
3.52
2.14
Nottingham Forest xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
12%
8.47
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
3%
35.86
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 2.14 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 12W 13D 18L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.14 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (4W 9D 8L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.00 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Crystal Palace
6
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
From 9 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 1, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 57%, Nottingham Forest 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Crystal Palace) and 67% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 52% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Crystal Palace's matches and 67% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.39 xG and Nottingham Forest 2.14 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nottingham Forest landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.95 / defence 1.37 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 23% | Nottingham Forest 54%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Crystal Palace win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 56%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.14 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.