Hull City 2-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Hull City take on Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Everton at MKM Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 5W 4D 1L at MKM Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hull City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Everton in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Everton 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 54% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.98 xG and Everton 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.783 / defence 0.866 | Everton attack 0.822 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.276. Hull City's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Hull City games / 43 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 34% | Draw 35% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Everton 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 50% | Everton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 34% | Draw 35% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Hull City 0.98 / Everton 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.783 / def 0.866 | Everton attack 0.822 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Everton xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Everton kick off?
Hull City vs Everton kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Everton?
Hull City 2 - 2 Everton.
Where is Hull City vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Everton part of?
Hull City vs Everton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 34% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hull City and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Everton in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.78) and Everton's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
35%
2.87
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.88
0.91
Everton xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hull City and 0.91 for Everton, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 10D 13L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.35 PPG from 43 outings (15W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.63 PPG, Everton on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.23 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Everton in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Everton away?
Hull City's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.57 PPG; Everton away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hull City or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Everton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Everton runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
0
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Everton?
From 1 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Everton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Hull City 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Everton see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Everton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 33% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Everton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 33% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Everton tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Everton in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Everton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Everton finished level at 2-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.98 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Everton attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 34% | Draw 35% | Everton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 54%, Everton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.63 PPG, Everton 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.