Everton 1-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 57%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Ipswich in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Everton (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's home record at Hill Dickinson Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ipswich are 0.70 PPG clear of Everton in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Ipswich 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Ipswich 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 2.39 xG and Ipswich 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.100 / defence 1.011 | Ipswich attack 1.127 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.283. Ipswich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Everton games / 4 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 57% | Draw 21% | Ipswich 22%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Ipswich 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Everton (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Ipswich 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Ipswich | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 57% | Draw 21% | Ipswich 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Everton 2.39 / Ipswich 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.100 / def 1.011 | Ipswich attack 1.127 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Everton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ipswich xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Ipswich kick off?
Everton vs Ipswich kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Ipswich?
Everton 1 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Everton vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Ipswich part of?
Everton vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 57% chance of winning, Ipswich a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Everton and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are Everton and Ipswich in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Ipswich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton's attack rating (1.10) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.13x) against Everton's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.73
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Everton xG
Total xG
3.85
1.46
Ipswich xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
9%
10.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
2%
50.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Everton and 1.46 for Ipswich, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Ipswich?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 13D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.83 PPG from 42 outings (22W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Everton's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.71 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Ipswich
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 22W 11D 9L in their last 42 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.29 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Everton or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ipswich in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Everton
1
Draws
0
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Ipswich?
From 3 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Ipswich have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Everton 1-0 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Ipswich?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 52%, Ipswich 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Everton) and 57% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ipswich in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Everton's games and 62% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Everton's recent games and 57% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Ipswich tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Ipswich 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Ipswich 1-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 2.39 xG and Ipswich 1.46 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Ipswich attack 1.13 / defence 1.52, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 57% | Draw 21% | Ipswich 22%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ipswich's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.