Fulham 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Burnley meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Fulham have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Burnley have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.50 PPG lead over Burnley (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Fulham's games and 70% of Burnley's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fulham, 1 for Burnley and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Fulham 3–2 Burnley — a Fulham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 66% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 57% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.053 / defence 1.012 | Burnley attack 0.822 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.267. Burnley's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fulham's projected output up. Data: built from Fulham's last 68 games and Burnley's last 30.
Result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.72 | Draw 4.12 | Burnley 5.64. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 70% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 31 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Fulham 2.01 / Burnley 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.053 / def 1.012 | Burnley attack 0.822 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Fulham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Burnley kick off?
Fulham vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Fulham 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Fulham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Burnley part of?
Fulham vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 58% chance of winning, Burnley a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fulham and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.82x) against Fulham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 68 games and Burnley's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.12
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.07
1.05
Burnley xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
2%
42.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Fulham and 1.05 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 68 games, going 27W 14D 27L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.51 PPG from 68 outings (27W 22D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Fulham against 1.51 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 15W 7D 12L across their last 34 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 34 away games (14W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.28 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Fulham (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Fulham vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 14D 27L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 22D 19L in their last 68 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Burnley away?
Fulham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Burnley away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Fulham or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Burnley in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Fulham and Burnley, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fulham have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Burnley?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Burnley have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Fulham 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Burnley?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 68%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fulham) and 47% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 38%; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fulham's games and 47% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Fulham's recent games and 47% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Fulham's recent matches and 71% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Burnley 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 57%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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