Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bournemouth — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham in Premier League (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fulham have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Bournemouth have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Fulham.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Fulham 1–3 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bournemouth have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bournemouth trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 63% and Bournemouth 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Bournemouth 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Bournemouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Fulham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.41 xG and Bournemouth 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.014 / defence 0.928 | Bournemouth attack 1.103 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.252. Data: built from Fulham's last 73 games and Bournemouth's last 73.
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.58 | Draw 3.51 | Bournemouth 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 70% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 36 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Fulham 1.41 / Bournemouth 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.014 / def 0.928 | Bournemouth attack 1.103 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bournemouth xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.01) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 73 games and Bournemouth's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.51
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Bournemouth xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fulham and 1.28 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 29W 15D 29L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 27W 27D 19L from 73 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 7D 12L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 12W 14D 10L from their last 36 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.55 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 63%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
Fulham (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 29W 15D 29L in their last 73 games (1.40 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 27W 27D 19L in their last 73 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.61 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fulham at 67%, Bournemouth at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fulham and 75% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fulham's games and 75% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Fulham's recent matches and 86% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.41 xG and Bournemouth 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Bournemouth attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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