Arsenal 3-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arsenal face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fulham's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Arsenal's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Arsenal are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Arsenal winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arsenal and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fulham — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 54% versus Fulham 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 49% | Fulham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.58 xG and Fulham 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.180 / defence 0.777 | Fulham attack 0.790 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.240. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Arsenal games / 72 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Fulham 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 60% | Fulham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Arsenal 1.58 / Fulham 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.180 / def 0.777 | Fulham attack 0.790 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Fulham kick off?
Arsenal vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Arsenal 3 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Arsenal vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Fulham part of?
Arsenal vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 56% chance of winning, Fulham a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Arsenal 4W | Draws 2 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.18x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.79x) against Arsenal's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
56%
1.80
28%
3.62
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.34
0.76
Fulham xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
29.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.76 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 42W 21D 9L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 29W 15D 28L from 72 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.22 PPG from 36 outings (24W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 12W 8D 16L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 64%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 42W 21D 9L in their last 72 games (2.04 PPG), while Fulham have gone 29W 15D 28L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Fulham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.22 PPG; Fulham away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fulham in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Fulham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 53%, Fulham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Arsenal) and 50% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Arsenal's games and 61% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Arsenal's recent games and 50% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Fulham tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fulham in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Fulham 3-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.58 xG and Fulham 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Fulham attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 49%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.