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Poisson model favours Aston Villa (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Aston Villa.

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Analysis

Aston Villa make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Aston Villa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Aston Villa are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Aston Villa have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Burnley's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Aston Villa winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aston Villa have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Aston Villa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Aston Villa 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.658 / defence 1.258 | Aston Villa attack 0.903 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.225. Burnley's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Burnley games / 73 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Aston Villa 2.22. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Aston Villa 60%.

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