Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aston Villa (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Aston Villa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aston Villa make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Aston Villa are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Aston Villa have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Burnley's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Aston Villa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aston Villa have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Aston Villa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Aston Villa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.658 / defence 1.258 | Aston Villa attack 0.903 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.225. Burnley's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Burnley games / 73 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Aston Villa 2.22. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Aston Villa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Burnley 0.97 / Aston Villa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.658 / def 1.258 | Aston Villa attack 0.903 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Aston Villa xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Aston Villa kick off?
Burnley vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Burnley 2 - 2 Aston Villa.
Where is Burnley vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Aston Villa part of?
Burnley vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 25% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Burnley and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Aston Villa?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 4W.
What form are Burnley and Aston Villa in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.66) and Aston Villa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.90x) against Burnley's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
25%
4.05
30%
3.34
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.36
1.39
Aston Villa xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.29
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Burnley and 1.39 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 27W 22D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 36W 16D 21L from 73 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Burnley against 1.70 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (13W 13D 10L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 14W 7D 15L from 36 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.45 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 games (1.41 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 36W 16D 21L in their last 73 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Aston Villa away?
Burnley's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.44 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Burnley or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Aston Villa?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Aston Villa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 33%, Aston Villa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Burnley) and 56% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 42% of games; Aston Villa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Burnley's recent matches and 53% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Burnley's recent games and 56% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, as Burnley and Aston Villa drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.97 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Aston Villa attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 25% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 45%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Aston Villa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.41 PPG, Aston Villa 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.