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Poisson rates Everton at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Everton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Everton's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 1.40 PPG versus Everton's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Everton, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Crystal Palace.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Everton winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Everton have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Everton in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Everton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 47% | Everton 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 0.96 xG and Everton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.719 / defence 0.941 | Everton attack 1.014 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.225. Crystal Palace's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Crystal Palace games / 73 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 39%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Everton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 40% | Everton 50% BTTS from recent games.

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