Fulham 3-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 51%, yet in-form Bournemouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fulham have won 0, Bournemouth 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bournemouth trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Bournemouth 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 62% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.018 / defence 0.837 | Bournemouth attack 1.094 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.445. Data: 61 Fulham games / 60 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 3.85. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bournemouth (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 30% | Bournemouth 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Fulham 1.91 / Bournemouth 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.018 / def 0.837 | Bournemouth attack 1.094 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Fulham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bournemouth xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 3 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 51% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Record (5 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 3 | Bournemouth 2W.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.02) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.23
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.24
1.32
Bournemouth xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Fulham and 1.32 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 11D 27L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 18W 12D 30L from 60 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.28 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.62 PPG from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 9W 4D 16L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.12 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 52%, Bournemouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Fulham and 59% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 31% of games; Bournemouth in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fulham's recent matches and 48% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Fulham's matches and 59% of Bournemouth's.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.91 xG and Bournemouth 1.32 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 26%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 62%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.28 PPG, Bournemouth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.