West Ham 0-6 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Arsenal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arsenal make the trip to London Stadium to face West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
West Ham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Arsenal have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arsenal have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for West Ham against 1.90 for Arsenal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for West Ham, 3 for Arsenal and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
West Ham — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Arsenal — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 51% versus Arsenal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 49% | Arsenal 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.18 xG and Arsenal 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.878 / defence 0.752 | Arsenal attack 1.012 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.752 / away 1.471. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. West Ham's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 West Ham games / 61 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 33%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Arsenal 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 50% | Arsenal 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG West Ham 1.18 / Arsenal 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.878 / def 0.752 | Arsenal attack 1.012 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.752 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: West Ham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arsenal xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Arsenal kick off?
West Ham vs Arsenal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Arsenal?
West Ham 0 - 6 Arsenal.
Where is West Ham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Arsenal part of?
West Ham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 37% chance of winning, Arsenal a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both West Ham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Arsenal?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 3W.
What form are West Ham and Arsenal in?
West Ham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.88) and Arsenal's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.01x) against West Ham's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.34
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.30
1.12
Arsenal xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for West Ham and 1.12 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Ham's recent record stands at 21W 13D 27L from 61 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 41W 10D 10L across 61 games — 2.18 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over West Ham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 18W 5D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Ham are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.21 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 21W 13D 27L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 41W 10D 10L in their last 61 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.57 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.97 PPG.
Have West Ham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Arsenal in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arsenal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-6 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
West Ham
1
Draws
7
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 2, Arsenal have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when West Ham 0-1 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 50%, Arsenal 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (West Ham) and 47% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arsenal in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of West Ham's recent matches and 40% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of West Ham's recent games and 47% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-6 hammering of West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat West Ham 0-6 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.18 xG and Arsenal 1.12 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 1.12 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.88 / defence 0.75 against Arsenal attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 37% | Draw 30% | Arsenal 33%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Arsenal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 49%, Arsenal 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.