Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bournemouth (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bournemouth face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bournemouth at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Nottingham Forest's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bournemouth's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bournemouth have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Nottingham Forest managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Bournemouth 3–2 Nottingham Forest — a Bournemouth win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bournemouth and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Nottingham Forest 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / defence 1.114 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.937 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.443. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 59 games and Nottingham Forest's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.40 | Draw 4.10 | Nottingham Forest 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Bournemouth 1.69 / Nottingham Forest 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / def 1.114 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.937 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Nottingham Forest xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 42% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.94x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 59 games and Nottingham Forest's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.10
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.20
1.51
Nottingham Forest xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.51 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 18W 11D 30L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 29L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Bournemouth against 0.98 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 9W 7D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 3W 7D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nottingham Forest's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 18W 11D 30L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 14W 16D 29L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.17 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, the earliest from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won Bournemouth 5-0 Nottingham Forest on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bournemouth
4
Draws
0
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 6, Nottingham Forest have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 41%, Nottingham Forest 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 41% of games; Nottingham Forest in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 48% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Bournemouth's matches and 59% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 72% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.51 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.10 PPG, Nottingham Forest 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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