Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Fulham, 1.70 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Aston Villa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Aston Villa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.094 / defence 0.783 | Aston Villa attack 1.067 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.538. Fulham's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Fulham games / 62 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Aston Villa 3.33. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 40% | Aston Villa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.62 / Aston Villa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.094 / def 0.783 | Aston Villa attack 1.067 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Aston Villa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham 1 - 2 Aston Villa.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 2W.
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.09x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (1.07x) against Fulham's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.89
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Aston Villa xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fulham and 1.29 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 12D 27L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 32W 11D 19L from 62 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (15W 6D 10L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 11W 8D 12L from 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aston Villa's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.63 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 23W 12D 27L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 32W 11D 19L in their last 62 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.65 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 3-0 on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Aston Villa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 48% (Aston Villa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 48% of Aston Villa's.
Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Aston Villa attack 1.07 / defence 0.86, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Aston Villa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.