Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Aston Villa — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Fulham, 1.20 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Fulham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Fulham's games and 70% of Aston Villa's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Aston Villa have the stronger record — 6 wins to Fulham's 1, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Fulham 1–3 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Aston Villa have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 65% and Aston Villa 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Aston Villa 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fulham surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Aston Villa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Aston Villa surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Fulham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.079 / defence 1.008 | Aston Villa attack 0.962 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.278. Data: built from Fulham's last 71 games and Aston Villa's last 71.
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.25 | Draw 3.59 | Aston Villa 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 80% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fulham 1.61 / Aston Villa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.079 / def 1.008 | Aston Villa attack 0.962 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Aston Villa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham 1 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.08x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.96x) against Fulham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 71 games and Aston Villa's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.59
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.85
1.24
Aston Villa xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fulham and 1.24 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 28W 15D 28L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 36W 16D 19L from 71 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Fulham against 1.75 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 35 home games (16W 7D 12L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 14W 7D 14L from their last 35 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
Fulham (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 28W 15D 28L in their last 71 games (1.39 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 36W 16D 19L in their last 71 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.57 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Aston Villa on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 69%, Aston Villa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Fulham and 57% for Aston Villa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Aston Villa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fulham's games and 54% of Aston Villa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Aston Villa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fulham's matches and 57% of Aston Villa's.
Do Fulham and Aston Villa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Fulham's recent matches and 66% of Aston Villa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Aston Villa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Aston Villa 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.61 xG and Aston Villa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Aston Villa attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Aston Villa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.39 PPG, Aston Villa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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