Manchester United 1-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Manchester United at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Manchester United vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Manchester United welcome Fulham to Old Trafford. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Manchester United have posted 5W 1D 4L at Old Trafford — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Manchester United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Manchester United have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Fulham have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Manchester United winning.
The historical record gives Manchester United a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Manchester United 44% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Manchester United 56% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Manchester United 1.94 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Manchester United attack 0.985 / defence 0.929 | Fulham attack 0.743 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.571. Data: 63 Manchester United games / 63 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Manchester United 56% | Draw 23% | Fulham 20%. Fair-value odds: Manchester United 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Fulham 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Manchester United (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Manchester United as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Manchester United 50% | Fulham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Manchester United vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Old Trafford • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Manchester United 56% | Draw 23% | Fulham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Manchester United 1.94 / Fulham 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Manchester United attack 0.985 / def 0.929 | Fulham attack 0.743 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.571 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Manchester United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fulham xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Manchester United vs Fulham kick off?
Manchester United vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Old Trafford.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Fulham?
Manchester United 1 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Manchester United vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Old Trafford.
What competition is Manchester United vs Fulham part of?
Manchester United vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Manchester United a 56% chance of winning, Fulham a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Manchester United and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Manchester United vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Manchester United 3W | Draws 0 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Manchester United and Fulham in?
Manchester United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Manchester United's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Manchester United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.26
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Manchester United xG
Total xG
3.02
1.08
Fulham xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
34.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Manchester United and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.08 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Manchester United vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Manchester United's recent record stands at 37W 8D 18L from 63 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 28L across 63 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Manchester United by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fulham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Manchester United have managed 22W 4D 5L from 31 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fulham's away record stands at 8W 6D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Manchester United are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.41 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Manchester United
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Manchester United and Fulham in coming into this match?
Manchester United have gone 37W 8D 18L in their last 63 games (1.89 PPG), while Fulham have gone 23W 12D 28L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Manchester United at home or Fulham away?
Manchester United's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Manchester United at home: 2.26 PPG; Fulham away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Manchester United or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Manchester United's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Manchester United
1
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Manchester United have won 6, Fulham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Manchester United and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Manchester United 3-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Manchester United and Fulham?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Manchester United 45%, Fulham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Manchester United and 58% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Fulham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Manchester United home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Manchester United play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Manchester United's recent matches and 52% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Manchester United vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Manchester United's matches and 58% of Fulham's.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Manchester United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Manchester United 1-2 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.94 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Manchester United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fulham outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Fulham attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Manchester United 56% | Draw 23% | Fulham 20%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 56%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Manchester United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Fulham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Manchester United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.