Burnley 0-5 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Arsenal meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Arsenal have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Arsenal arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Burnley 0W, Arsenal 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Arsenal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Arsenal — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Arsenal 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Arsenal 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.89 xG and Arsenal 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.725 / defence 1.261 | Arsenal attack 1.284 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.538. Burnley's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.712 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Arsenal have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 2.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Burnley games / 62 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 9.09 | Draw 5.88 | Arsenal 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Arsenal 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 55% | xG Burnley 0.89 / Arsenal 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.725 / def 1.261 | Arsenal attack 1.284 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Arsenal xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Arsenal kick off?
Burnley vs Arsenal kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Burnley 0 - 5 Arsenal.
Where is Burnley vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Arsenal part of?
Burnley vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 11% chance of winning, Arsenal a 72% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 2W.
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.28x) against Burnley's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.49.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
11%
9.11
17%
5.80
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.38
2.49
Arsenal xG
9.11
11%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
8%
12.07
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
1%
109.96
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Burnley and 2.49 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 29W 14D 19L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal's form line: 42W 10D 10L from 62 games, 2.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 19W 5D 7L from 31 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 14D 19L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 42W 10D 10L in their last 62 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.71 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Arsenal in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-5 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Arsenal have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 45%, Arsenal 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Burnley) and 48% (Arsenal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Arsenal in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Burnley's recent matches and 39% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Burnley's matches and 48% of Arsenal's.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Burnley 0-5 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.89 xG and Arsenal 2.49 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 2.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Arsenal attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Arsenal 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.