Everton 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Burnley at Goodison Park in Premier League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Everton have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 0.60 PPG versus Burnley's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Everton have won 2, Burnley 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Everton 2–0 Burnley — a Everton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Burnley trading profile (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Burnley 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.54 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.773 / defence 0.972 | Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.519. Everton's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.54. Data: built from Everton's last 68 games and Burnley's last 31.
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.35 | Draw 3.44 | Burnley 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 32 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Everton 1.54 / Burnley 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.773 / def 0.972 | Burnley attack 0.833 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Everton vs Burnley kick off?
Everton vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Burnley?
Everton 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Everton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Burnley part of?
Everton vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Burnley a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Everton and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 68 games and Burnley's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.44
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Everton xG
Total xG
2.77
1.23
Burnley xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Everton and 1.23 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 16W 20D 32L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 30W 16D 22L from 68 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.03 PPG from their last 33 home games (9W 7D 17L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 13W 10D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.53 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Everton (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Everton vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 20D 32L in their last 68 games (1.00 PPG), while Burnley have gone 30W 16D 22L in their last 68 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.03 PPG; Burnley away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Everton or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Burnley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 3 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Everton
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Everton and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2026: Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Burnley?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Burnley 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 58% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 61% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 58% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Everton's recent matches and 70% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Burnley 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.54 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burnley landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.77 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 68/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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