Fulham 0-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 7W 1D 2L at Craven Cottage — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Craven Cottage. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Fulham, 1.50 for Newcastle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Newcastle have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Fulham's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Newcastle winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Newcastle have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Newcastle 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 66% | Newcastle 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.52 xG and Newcastle 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.172 / defence 0.710 | Newcastle attack 1.099 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.519. Newcastle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fulham's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Fulham games / 68 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 65% | Draw 20% | Newcastle 15%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Newcastle 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 40% | Newcastle 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 65% | Draw 20% | Newcastle 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Fulham 2.52 / Newcastle 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.172 / def 0.710 | Newcastle attack 1.099 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Fulham (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Newcastle xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Newcastle kick off?
Fulham vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Fulham 0 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Fulham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Newcastle part of?
Fulham vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 65% chance of winning, Newcastle a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Fulham and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 3W.
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Newcastle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.17x the league average against Newcastle's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (1.10x) against Fulham's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.99
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.70
1.19
Newcastle xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
8%
12.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
1%
82.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Fulham and 1.19 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham come into this having played 68 games, going 26W 12D 30L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.69 PPG from 68 outings (32W 19D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Fulham against 1.69 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fulham's home form reads 17W 5D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.94 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 26W 12D 30L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 32W 19D 17L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Newcastle away?
Fulham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.70 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fulham or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Newcastle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
0
Draws
5
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Newcastle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 52%, Newcastle 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fulham and 67% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 27% of games; Newcastle in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fulham's games and 64% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fulham's matches and 67% of Newcastle's.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.52 xG and Newcastle 1.19 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.17 / defence 0.71 against Newcastle attack 1.10 / defence 1.25, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 65% | Draw 20% | Newcastle 15%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Newcastle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 66%, Newcastle 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.32 PPG, Newcastle 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.