Burnley 1-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brighton at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Brighton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burnley welcome Brighton to Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burnley have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Brighton — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Brighton's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Burnley) versus 1.10 (Brighton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Burnley have won 1, Brighton 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Burnley 1–1 Brighton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Brighton in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Brighton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Brighton 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.13 xG and Brighton 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.674 / defence 1.262 | Brighton attack 0.833 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.504. Burnley's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Burnley's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brighton's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 32 games and Brighton's last 69.
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 3.64 | Brighton 2.15. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Brighton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Brighton 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Burnley 1.13 / Brighton 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.674 / def 1.262 | Brighton attack 0.833 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Brighton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Brighton xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Brighton FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Brighton kick off?
Burnley vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Burnley 1 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Burnley vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brighton part of?
Burnley vs Brighton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Brighton a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Brighton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.67) and Brighton's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 32 games and Brighton's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
26%
3.85
28%
3.64
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.71
1.58
Brighton xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
18.71
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Brighton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Burnley and 1.58 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 30W 16D 23L from 69 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 22L across 69 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.54 PPG, Brighton on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 17W 6D 12L from their last 35 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 12W 8D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.78 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 65%.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Brighton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Brighton Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Brighton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 30W 16D 23L in their last 69 games (1.54 PPG), while Brighton have gone 29W 18D 22L in their last 69 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brighton away?
Burnley's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.63 PPG; Brighton away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brighton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brighton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Brighton have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won Brighton 0-3 Burnley.
Burnley's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Brighton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 1, Brighton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brighton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Brighton 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Burnley and 74% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Brighton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Brighton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Burnley's games and 71% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burnley and Brighton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Burnley's matches and 74% of Brighton's.
Do Burnley and Brighton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Burnley's recent matches and 83% of Brighton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Brighton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 33, as Burnley and Brighton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.13 xG and Brighton 1.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Brighton attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Brighton 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Brighton's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.54 PPG, Brighton 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 33
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →