Burnley 1-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brighton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Brighton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Burnley welcome Brighton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L at Turf Moor — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Brighton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Brighton's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Burnley) versus 1.10 (Brighton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Brighton and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Brighton in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at away): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Brighton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 59% | Brighton 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.13 xG and Brighton 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.674 / defence 1.262 | Brighton attack 0.833 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.504. Burnley's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Burnley games / 69 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Brighton 2.13. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Brighton 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Burnley 1.13 / Brighton 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.674 / def 1.262 | Brighton attack 0.833 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Brighton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Brighton xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brighton kick off?
Burnley vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Burnley 1 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Burnley vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brighton part of?
Burnley vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Brighton a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Brighton 1W.
What form are Burnley and Brighton in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Brighton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.67) and Brighton's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
26%
3.85
28%
3.64
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.71
1.58
Brighton xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
18.71
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Burnley and 1.58 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 30W 16D 23L from 69 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 22L across 69 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.54 PPG, Brighton on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 17W 6D 12L from 35 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 12W 8D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.78 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 65%.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Brighton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 30W 16D 23L in their last 69 games (1.54 PPG), while Brighton have gone 29W 18D 22L in their last 69 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brighton away?
Burnley's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.63 PPG; Brighton away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brighton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brighton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Brighton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Brighton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Brighton 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Burnley and 74% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Burnley's games and 71% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Burnley's matches and 74% of Brighton's.
Burnley and Brighton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 33, as Burnley and Brighton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.13 xG and Brighton 1.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Brighton attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 28% | Brighton 47%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 59%, Brighton 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Brighton's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.54 PPG, Brighton 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.