Newcastle 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Newcastle — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Everton's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Newcastle are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 3, Everton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Everton trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 55% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 60% | Everton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.14 xG and Everton 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.351 / defence 1.069 | Everton attack 0.705 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.535. Newcastle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Newcastle games / 67 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 59% | Draw 23% | Everton 19%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Everton 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 60% | Everton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 59% | Draw 23% | Everton 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Newcastle 2.14 / Everton 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.351 / def 1.069 | Everton attack 0.705 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.535 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Everton xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 59% chance of winning, Everton a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Newcastle 3W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Newcastle and Everton in?
Newcastle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Everton (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.37
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.29
1.16
Everton xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
2%
45.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.16 for Everton, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 32W 18D 17L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 16W 19D 32L from 67 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Newcastle are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 2.09 PPG from 34 outings (21W 8D 5L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 12D 15L from 34 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.96 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 32W 18D 17L in their last 67 games (1.70 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 19D 32L in their last 67 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.09 PPG; Everton away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
2
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Everton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 47%, Everton 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Newcastle) and 44% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Everton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Newcastle's recent matches and 47% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Newcastle's recent games and 44% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Newcastle and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 31, as Newcastle and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.14 xG and Everton 1.16 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Newcastle fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.35 / defence 1.07 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 59% | Draw 23% | Everton 19%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 60%, Everton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.