Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 39% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Selhurst Park plays host to Crystal Palace versus West Ham in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crystal Palace's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
West Ham have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, West Ham have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Crystal Palace, 1.50 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Crystal Palace have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with West Ham managing 2 and 2 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Crystal Palace 2–1 West Ham — a Crystal Palace win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Crystal Palace and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 55% versus West Ham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | West Ham 54%). Note also that West Ham surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Crystal Palace recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and West Ham 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.796 / defence 0.993 | West Ham attack 0.923 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.268. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 69 games and West Ham's last 70.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.58 | Draw 3.24 | West Ham 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Crystal Palace 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 50% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.34 / West Ham 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.796 / def 0.993 | West Ham attack 0.923 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.16
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs West Ham FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs West Ham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs West Ham kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 20 April 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Crystal Palace 0 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs West Ham part of?
Crystal Palace vs West Ham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 39% chance of winning, West Ham a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crystal Palace and West Ham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crystal Palace vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.80) and West Ham's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.92x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 69 games and West Ham's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.24
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.50
1.16
West Ham xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs West Ham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.16 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 23D 22L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
West Ham's form line: 19W 18D 32L from 69 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.09 for West Ham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 35 home games (10W 14D 11L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 10W 9D 16L from their last 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.23 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
Crystal Palace (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Crystal Palace vs West Ham Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and West Ham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 24W 23D 22L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while West Ham have gone 19W 18D 32L in their last 69 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or West Ham away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.26 PPG; West Ham away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, West Ham in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Crystal Palace and West Ham, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 20 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won Crystal Palace 5-2 West Ham on 21 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs West Ham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and West Ham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 5, West Ham have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and West Ham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2026: Crystal Palace 0-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and West Ham?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 57%, West Ham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crystal Palace) and 49% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs West Ham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and West Ham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Crystal Palace's games and 57% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crystal Palace and West Ham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 49% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and West Ham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 74% of West Ham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 33, as Crystal Palace and West Ham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.34 xG and West Ham 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.3 short of their projected output. West Ham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against West Ham attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 31% | West Ham 30%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.38 PPG, West Ham 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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