Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Newcastle at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Newcastle meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Newcastle (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Newcastle's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Crystal Palace, 1.00 for Newcastle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Newcastle have the stronger record — 4 wins to Crystal Palace's 1, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Crystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle — a Newcastle win.
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Newcastle — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Newcastle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | Newcastle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 0.96 xG and Newcastle 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.729 / defence 1.010 | Newcastle attack 0.924 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.253. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 68 games and Newcastle's last 69.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 28% | Draw 34% | Newcastle 38%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 3.60 | Draw 2.94 | Newcastle 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Newcastle 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 40% (last 10 home games) | Newcastle 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, matchday 32 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 28% | Draw 34% | Newcastle 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Crystal Palace 0.96 / Newcastle 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.729 / def 1.010 | Newcastle attack 0.924 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Newcastle xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Newcastle.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle part of?
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle is a Premier League fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 28% chance of winning, Newcastle a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crystal Palace and Newcastle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Crystal Palace vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.73) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.92x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 68 games and Newcastle's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
28%
3.60
34%
2.94
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.13
1.17
Newcastle xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.17 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crystal Palace come into this having played 68 games, going 23W 23D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.54 PPG from 68 outings (31W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.54 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Crystal Palace's home form reads 9W 14D 11L across their last 34 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 34 away games (12W 8D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.63 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Newcastle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 23W 23D 22L in their last 68 games (1.35 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 31W 12D 25L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Newcastle away?
Newcastle's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.21 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Newcastle in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won Newcastle 5-0 Crystal Palace on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
5
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 2, Newcastle have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Newcastle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 56%, Newcastle 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Crystal Palace) and 56% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 32% of games; Newcastle in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Newcastle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Crystal Palace's games and 56% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crystal Palace and Newcastle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 56% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Newcastle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 74% of Newcastle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Newcastle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Newcastle 2-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 0.96 xG and Newcastle 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Newcastle attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 28% | Draw 34% | Newcastle 38%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Newcastle 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG, Newcastle 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 32
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →