Crystal Palace 2-3 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crystal Palace face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crystal Palace have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Crystal Palace at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 2 for Everton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 45% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 39% | Everton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.10 xG and Everton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.751 / defence 0.890 | Everton attack 0.940 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.352. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 49 games and Everton's last 49.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 29% | Everton 36%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.88 | Draw 3.46 | Everton 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 50% (last 10 home games) | Everton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 29% | Everton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.10 / Everton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.751 / def 0.890 | Everton attack 0.940 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Everton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Everton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Crystal Palace 2 - 3 Everton.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of winning, Everton a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.75) and Everton's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 49 games and Everton's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.46
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.23
1.13
Everton xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.13 for Everton, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 15D 19L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 11W 14D 24L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.22 PPG, Everton on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 24 home games (8W 9D 7L).
On the road, Everton have gone 4W 10D 10L from their last 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.92 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 15W 15D 19L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton have gone 11W 14D 24L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.38 PPG; Everton away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won Everton 3-0 Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
7
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 0, Everton have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crystal Palace see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 50%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Crystal Palace) and 46% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 42% of games; Everton in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crystal Palace and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 46% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 71% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Crystal Palace 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.10 xG and Everton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Everton attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 29% | Everton 36%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 39%, Everton 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.22 PPG, Everton 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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