Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aston Villa vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Villa Park to face Aston Villa in Premier League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Aston Villa (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Aston Villa have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Aston Villa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fulham have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Fulham have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Aston Villa. A 1.30 PPG lead over Fulham (2.20 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham — a Aston Villa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 53% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 53% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 2.42 xG and Fulham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.631 / defence 0.821 | Fulham attack 0.800 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.341. Aston Villa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.631 — their 2.42 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Aston Villa's last 49 games and Fulham's last 49.
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 71% | Draw 17% | Fulham 12%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 1.40 | Draw 5.91 | Fulham 8.44. The model has a clear lean to Aston Villa (71%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Aston Villa 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 71% | Draw 17% | Fulham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Aston Villa 2.42 / Fulham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.631 / def 0.821 | Fulham attack 0.800 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fulham xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aston Villa vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Aston Villa vs Fulham kick off?
Aston Villa vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa 3 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Fulham part of?
Aston Villa vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 71% chance of winning, Fulham a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Aston Villa and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aston Villa vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aston Villa's attacking strength (1.63x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.80x) against Aston Villa's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Aston Villa's last 49 games and Fulham's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.91
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
3.30
0.88
Fulham xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
1%
94.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Aston Villa and 0.88 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aston Villa come into this having played 49 games, going 25W 8D 16L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.31 PPG from 49 outings (18W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Aston Villa against 1.31 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Aston Villa's home form reads 17W 2D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Aston Villa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aston Villa are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.31 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aston Villa
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Aston Villa vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Aston Villa and Fulham in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while Fulham have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Fulham away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.21 PPG; Fulham away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Aston Villa on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aston Villa have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Aston Villa
1
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Aston Villa vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fulham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Aston Villa have won 6, Fulham have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Fulham?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 58%, Fulham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Aston Villa and 54% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aston Villa vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aston Villa and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Aston Villa's games and 54% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aston Villa and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Aston Villa's matches and 54% of Fulham's.
Do Aston Villa and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 71% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Fulham 3-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.42 xG and Fulham 0.88 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.63 / defence 0.82 against Fulham attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 71% | Draw 17% | Fulham 12%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 53%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.69 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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