Arsenal 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Arsenal (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Emirates Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burnley have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Arsenal. A 1.70 PPG lead over Burnley (2.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arsenal have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burnley in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Burnley and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Arsenal half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 53% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 67% | Burnley 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.66 xG and Burnley 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.384 / defence 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.720 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.352. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Arsenal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Arsenal games / 11 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 76% | Draw 15% | Burnley 10%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Burnley 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arsenal at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 60% | Burnley 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 76% | Draw 15% | Burnley 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 53% | xG Arsenal 2.66 / Burnley 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.384 / def 0.879 | Burnley attack 0.720 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Burnley xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Burnley kick off?
Arsenal vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Arsenal vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Burnley part of?
Arsenal vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 76% chance of winning, Burnley a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arsenal and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Arsenal 1W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Arsenal and Burnley in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.38) and Burnley's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.72x) against Arsenal's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.79
10%
10.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Arsenal xG
Total xG
3.51
0.86
Burnley xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.79
15%
Draw
10.38
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
7%
14.27
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
148.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.86 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arsenal's recent record stands at 33W 9D 7L from 49 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 11L across 49 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.20 PPG for Arsenal against 1.88 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 17W 5D 2L from 24 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 12W 8D 4L across 24 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.65 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Burnley in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Burnley in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 33W 9D 7L in their last 49 games (2.20 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 11D 11L in their last 49 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Burnley away?
Arsenal's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.33 PPG; Burnley away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burnley in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arsenal have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-5 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Arsenal
1
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Burnley have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Burnley?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 71%, Burnley 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Arsenal and 50% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Arsenal's games and 58% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Arsenal's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Burnley 3-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.66 xG and Burnley 0.86 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.38 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 76% | Draw 15% | Burnley 10%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 67%, Burnley 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal 2.20 PPG, Burnley 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.