Everton 0-3 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Manchester United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Manchester United make the trip to Goodison Park to face Everton in Premier League (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Everton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Everton have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Manchester United have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Manchester United's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Everton, 1.80 for Manchester United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Manchester United edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Everton 0–2 Manchester United — a Manchester United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Manchester United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Manchester United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Manchester United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.05 xG and Manchester United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.739 / defence 0.892 | Manchester United attack 0.814 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.383. Everton's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Everton's last 50 games and Manchester United's last 50.
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.77 | Draw 3.30 | Manchester United 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Manchester United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 40% (last 10 home games) | Manchester United 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Everton 1.05 / Manchester United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.739 / def 0.892 | Manchester United attack 0.814 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Everton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Manchester United xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Manchester United FAQs
What time does Everton vs Manchester United kick off?
Everton vs Manchester United kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Manchester United?
Everton 0 - 3 Manchester United.
Where is Everton vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Manchester United part of?
Everton vs Manchester United is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Manchester United a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton and Manchester United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Everton vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.74) and Manchester United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Manchester United's attack (0.81x) against Everton's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 50 games and Manchester United's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.30
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Everton xG
Total xG
2.05
1.00
Manchester United xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Manchester United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton and 1.00 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 14D 24L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Manchester United's form line: 30W 6D 14L from 50 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Manchester United are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.04 PPG from their last 24 home games (7W 4D 13L).
On the road, Manchester United have gone 11W 3D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Manchester United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.42 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Manchester United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
Everton (Home) vs Manchester United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
❓ Everton vs Manchester United Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 12W 14D 24L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 30W 6D 14L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Manchester United away?
Manchester United's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.04 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Everton or Manchester United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Manchester United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester United won Manchester United 4-0 Everton on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 2D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Manchester United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Manchester United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 2, Manchester United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Manchester United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Everton 2-2 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Manchester United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Manchester United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 42% (Manchester United).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Manchester United in 33%; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Manchester United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Manchester United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 42% of Manchester United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Manchester United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 42% of Manchester United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Manchester United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Everton's recent matches and 67% of Manchester United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Manchester United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester United beat Everton 0-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.05 xG and Manchester United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Manchester United outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Manchester United attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Manchester United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester United's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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