Burnley 3-4 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brentford at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brentford travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Burnley — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brentford stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Brentford have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brentford are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Burnley have won 2, Brentford 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Burnley 1–3 Brentford — a Brentford win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brentford in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Brentford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | Brentford 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.725 / defence 1.255 | Brentford attack 1.045 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Burnley's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Burnley's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brentford's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 27 games and Brentford's last 65.
Result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.66 | Draw 3.38 | Brentford 2.04. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Burnley 40% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Burnley 1.06 / Brentford 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.725 / def 1.255 | Brentford attack 1.045 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Brentford (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Brentford xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Brentford kick off?
Burnley vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Burnley 3 - 4 Brentford.
Where is Burnley vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brentford part of?
Burnley vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 21% chance of winning, Brentford a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 27 games and Brentford's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
21%
4.66
30%
3.38
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.73
1.67
Brentford xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
24.75
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Burnley and 1.67 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 27W 21D 17L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Brentford's form line: 28W 12D 25L from 65 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.57 PPG, Brentford on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 12D 7L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 12W 4D 16L from their last 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.63 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 60%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Brentford in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 21D 17L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while Brentford have gone 28W 12D 25L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brentford away?
Burnley's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.59 PPG; Brentford away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Brentford in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2023, when Brentford won Brentford 3-0 Burnley.
Burnley's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 2, Brentford have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Burnley 3-4 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 34%, Brentford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Burnley) and 53% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Brentford in 31%; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Burnley's recent matches and 53% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Burnley's recent games and 53% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Burnley's recent matches and 81% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Burnley 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Burnley 3-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.67 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brentford outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.25 against Brentford attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brentford 49%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, Brentford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.57 PPG, Brentford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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