Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Bournemouth at Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Burnley have won 0, Bournemouth 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Burnley 1–1 Bournemouth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Bournemouth 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.44 xG and Bournemouth 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.849 / defence 1.383 | Bournemouth attack 1.114 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.303. Burnley's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 29 games and Bournemouth's last 67.
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.81 | Draw 4.15 | Bournemouth 2.01. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.44 / 2.01) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Burnley 1.44 / Bournemouth 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.849 / def 1.383 | Bournemouth attack 1.114 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Bournemouth xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Bournemouth kick off?
Burnley vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Burnley 0 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Burnley vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Bournemouth part of?
Burnley vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Burnley and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 29 games and Bournemouth's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.15
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.44
2.01
Bournemouth xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
4%
28.41
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Burnley and 2.01 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 27W 21D 19L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 24W 24D 19L from 67 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.52 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 12D 8L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 10W 13D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.52 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 63%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 21D 19L in their last 67 games (1.52 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 24W 24D 19L in their last 67 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Bournemouth away?
Burnley's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.55 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Burnley or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Burnley's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Bournemouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 36%, Bournemouth 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 76% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Burnley's games and 76% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burnley and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 76% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Burnley's recent matches and 88% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 30, as Burnley and Bournemouth drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.44 xG and Bournemouth 2.01 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bournemouth landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Bournemouth attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 50%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 40%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.52 PPG, Bournemouth 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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