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Poisson model rates Fulham at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fulham and Burnley meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.50 PPG lead over Burnley (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fulham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Burnley in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Fulham winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 66% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 57% | Burnley 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.053 / defence 1.012 | Burnley attack 0.822 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.267. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Fulham games / 30 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.

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