Brighton 0-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brighton at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brighton face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brighton host Crystal Palace at Amex Stadium in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Brighton — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Brighton have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Brighton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Crystal Palace have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Crystal Palace's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brighton at 0.90 PPG versus Crystal Palace's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Brighton's games and 60% of Crystal Palace's (from Brighton's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Brighton, 2 for Crystal Palace and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Brighton 0–0 Crystal Palace — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Brighton in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brighton 71% and Crystal Palace 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brighton 63% | Crystal Palace 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brighton surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Crystal Palace have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Brighton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.42 xG and Crystal Palace 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 0.977 / defence 0.919 | Crystal Palace attack 0.877 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.273. Data: built from Brighton's last 62 games and Crystal Palace's last 62.
Result probabilities: Brighton 43% | Draw 33% | Crystal Palace 24%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 2.35 | Draw 3.00 | Crystal Palace 4.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brighton 70% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Amex Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 43% | Draw 33% | Crystal Palace 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Brighton 1.42 / Crystal Palace 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 0.977 / def 0.919 | Crystal Palace attack 0.877 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Brighton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Crystal Palace xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brighton vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does Brighton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Brighton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Amex Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Brighton 0 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Brighton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Amex Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Brighton vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 43% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brighton and Crystal Palace will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brighton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brighton's attack at 0.98x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Brighton's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brighton's last 62 games and Crystal Palace's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.00
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Brighton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Crystal Palace xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brighton vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Brighton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Brighton and 1.03 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brighton's recent record stands at 23W 23D 16L from 62 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 20L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brighton on 1.48 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brighton have managed 13W 14D 4L from their last 31 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 12W 9D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brighton are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
Brighton (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brighton
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Brighton vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are Brighton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 23W 23D 16L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Brighton's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.71 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Brighton or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2026, when Brighton won Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace.
Brighton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brighton
4
Draws
3
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Brighton vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Crystal Palace?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brighton have won 3, Crystal Palace have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 78% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 74%, Crystal Palace 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Brighton) and 45% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brighton vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brighton and Crystal Palace matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Brighton's games and 52% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brighton and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Brighton's recent games and 45% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brighton and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Brighton's recent matches and 68% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crystal Palace defy the odds to beat Brighton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Brighton 0-1 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.42 xG and Crystal Palace 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Brighton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Crystal Palace attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 43% | Draw 33% | Crystal Palace 24%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Crystal Palace win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 63%, Crystal Palace 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brighton 1.48 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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