Bournemouth 3-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bournemouth take on Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Everton meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bournemouth's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Everton have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.20 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 50% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 0.89 xG and Everton 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.664 / defence 1.108 | Everton attack 0.731 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.161. Bournemouth's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Bournemouth games / 52 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 31% | Draw 35% | Everton 34%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Everton 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 30% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 31% | Draw 35% | Everton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Bournemouth 0.89 / Everton 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.664 / def 1.108 | Everton attack 0.731 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Everton xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Everton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Everton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Everton part of?
Bournemouth vs Everton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 31% chance of winning, Everton a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bournemouth and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.73x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
35%
2.87
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
1.82
0.94
Everton xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.94 for Everton, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 23W 14D 15L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 14W 11D 27L from 52 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
On the road, Everton have gone 3W 7D 16L from 26 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Everton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 14D 15L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Everton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.77 PPG; Everton away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
0
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Everton have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Everton 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Everton?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 46%, Everton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bournemouth) and 54% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 27% of games; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 58% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bournemouth's recent games and 54% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Everton 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 0.89 xG and Everton 0.94 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.66 / defence 1.11 against Everton attack 0.73 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 31% | Draw 35% | Everton 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 50%, Everton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.