Fulham 1-2 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet in-form Manchester United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Manchester United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Fulham welcome Manchester United to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester United away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Manchester United's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Manchester United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Manchester United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.82 xG and Manchester United 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.931 / defence 1.206 | Manchester United attack 1.084 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.166. Manchester United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Fulham games / 51 Manchester United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 32%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Manchester United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Manchester United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Manchester United 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Fulham 1.82 / Manchester United 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.931 / def 1.206 | Manchester United attack 1.084 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Manchester United xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Manchester United kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester United kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Fulham 1 - 2 Manchester United.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester United part of?
Fulham vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, Manchester United a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fulham and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Manchester United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.93x the league average against Manchester United's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester United's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.25
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.34
1.52
Manchester United xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fulham and 1.52 for Manchester United, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham come into this having played 51 games, going 27W 11D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Manchester United sit at 1.59 PPG from 51 outings (23W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.80 PPG, Manchester United on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fulham's home form reads 15W 6D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester United have taken 1.27 points per game from 26 outings (9W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.47 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 11D 13L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester United away?
Fulham's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.96 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Fulham or Manchester United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Manchester United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Manchester United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham's record when hosting Manchester United specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Manchester United 3-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 58%, Manchester United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fulham and 58% for Manchester United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Manchester United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fulham's games and 62% of Manchester United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 58% of Manchester United's.
Shock result as Manchester United defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester United beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.82 xG and Manchester United 1.52 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fulham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Manchester United attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 32%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Manchester United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Manchester United's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.80 PPG, Manchester United 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.