Everton 0-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Leicester travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Everton 1.30 PPG, Leicester 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Everton, 0 for Leicester and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Leicester in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 51% versus Leicester 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 49% | Leicester 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.96 xG and Leicester 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.859 / defence 0.882 | Leicester attack 1.378 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.112. Leicester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Leicester have an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Everton games / 51 Leicester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Leicester 4.00. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Leicester 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Everton 1.96 / Leicester 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.859 / def 0.882 | Leicester attack 1.378 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Everton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Leicester xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Leicester kick off?
Everton vs Leicester kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Leicester?
Everton 0 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Everton vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Leicester part of?
Everton vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 50% chance of winning, Leicester a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Everton and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leicester?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 1 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Everton and Leicester in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Leicester (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.86) and Leicester's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.15
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Everton xG
Total xG
3.31
1.35
Leicester xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
27.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Everton and 1.35 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 11D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.24 PPG from 51 outings (17W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.04 PPG, Leicester on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Everton's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leicester's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.63 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Leicester in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 11D 26L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Leicester have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Leicester away?
Everton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.48 PPG; Leicester away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Leicester runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Leicester have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Leicester?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Leicester 84% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 72% (Leicester). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Everton's games and 84% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Everton's matches and 72% of Leicester's.
Leicester cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Everton 0-2 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.96 xG and Leicester 1.35 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Everton fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Leicester attack 1.38 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 50% | Draw 24% | Leicester 25%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Leicester win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 49%, Leicester 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leicester's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.04 PPG, Leicester 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.