Nottingham Forest 1-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Crystal Palace travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Crystal Palace — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nottingham Forest register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crystal Palace in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 41% versus Crystal Palace 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 43% | Crystal Palace 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG and Crystal Palace 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.796 / defence 1.256 | Crystal Palace attack 0.924 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.161. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Nottingham Forest games / 51 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 32% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Crystal Palace 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 60% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 32% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.19 / Crystal Palace 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.796 / def 1.256 | Crystal Palace attack 0.924 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Crystal Palace xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 32% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.80x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.54
1.35
Crystal Palace xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.35 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 13D 15L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crystal Palace sit at 1.31 PPG from 51 outings (16W 19D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.61 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 14W 5D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Crystal Palace have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (5W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 13D 15L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 16W 19D 16L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Crystal Palace away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.88 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
6
Draws
0
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 44%, Crystal Palace 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nottingham Forest) and 52% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Crystal Palace in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 52% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 52% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG and Crystal Palace 1.35 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Crystal Palace attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 14/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 32% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 39%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 43%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.61 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.