Swindon Town 1-1 Bristol Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swindon Town face Bristol Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Bristol Rovers at County Ground in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swindon Town have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Swindon Town have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bristol Rovers stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bristol Rovers away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swindon Town at 1.50 PPG versus Bristol Rovers's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Swindon Town, 0 for Bristol Rovers and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Swindon Town 3–0 Bristol Rovers — a Swindon Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bristol Rovers in-play and half-time data (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 57% versus Bristol Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 60% | Bristol Rovers 51%). Note also that Bristol Rovers surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Swindon Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.06 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.221 / defence 0.935 | Bristol Rovers attack 0.699 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.185. Bristol Rovers's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Bristol Rovers's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 80 games and Bristol Rovers's last 33.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 67% | Draw 20% | Bristol Rovers 13%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.49 | Draw 5.08 | Bristol Rovers 7.70. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Bristol Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Bristol Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 67% | Draw 20% | Bristol Rovers 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Swindon Town 2.06 / Bristol Rovers 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.221 / def 0.935 | Bristol Rovers attack 0.699 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bristol Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers kick off?
Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Bristol Rovers.
Where is Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers part of?
Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 67% chance of winning, Bristol Rovers a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Bristol Rovers's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol Rovers's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 80 games and Bristol Rovers's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.08
13%
7.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.84
0.78
Bristol Rovers xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
7.70
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
60.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.78 for Bristol Rovers, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swindon Town come into this having played 79 games, going 34W 20D 25L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bristol Rovers sit at 0.92 PPG from 79 outings (21W 10D 48L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Swindon Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Bristol Rovers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swindon Town's home form reads 19W 11D 9L across their last 39 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol Rovers have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 39 away games (6W 5D 28L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bristol Rovers are on 0.96 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Bristol Rovers
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Bristol Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Bristol Rovers
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 34W 20D 25L in their last 79 games (1.54 PPG), while Bristol Rovers have gone 21W 10D 48L in their last 79 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Bristol Rovers away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.74 PPG; Bristol Rovers away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Dec 2025, when Swindon Town won Bristol Rovers 0-3 Swindon Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Bristol Rovers specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
3
Draws
0
Bristol Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 2, Bristol Rovers have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Bristol Rovers 0-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 56%, Bristol Rovers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Swindon Town) and 49% (Bristol Rovers).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bristol Rovers in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Bristol Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Bristol Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 41% of Bristol Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Swindon Town's recent games and 49% of Bristol Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 72% of Bristol Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town and Bristol Rovers finished level at 1-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.06 xG and Bristol Rovers 0.78 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Swindon Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Bristol Rovers attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 80/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 67% | Draw 20% | Bristol Rovers 13%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 60%, Bristol Rovers 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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