Colchester 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 35 as Colchester welcome Salford City to Colchester Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Colchester at Colchester Community Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Colchester are significantly better at Colchester Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Salford City — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Salford City away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Colchester) versus 1.30 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Colchester, 4 for Salford City and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–4 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Salford City trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 50% versus Salford City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 33% | Salford City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.75 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 1.287 / defence 0.817 | Salford City attack 1.128 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Colchester carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 78 Colchester games / 78 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Salford City 4.17. Colchester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 40% | Salford City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Colchester Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Colchester 1.75 / Salford City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 1.287 / def 0.817 | Salford City attack 1.128 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Colchester (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Salford City xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Salford City kick off?
Colchester vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Colchester Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Colchester 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Colchester vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Salford City part of?
Colchester vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 53% chance of winning, Salford City a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Colchester and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
Record (9 meetings): Colchester 3W | Draws 2 | Salford City 4W.
What form are Colchester and Salford City in?
Colchester (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Salford City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 1.29x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.24
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Colchester xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
Salford City xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
24.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Colchester and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Colchester and 1.09 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 78 games, going 29W 29D 20L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.55 PPG from 78 outings (34W 19D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.49 PPG, Salford City on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 18W 12D 9L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.51 points per game from 39 outings (16W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.40 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Salford City in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 29W 29D 20L in their last 78 games (1.49 PPG), while Salford City have gone 34W 19D 25L in their last 78 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Salford City away?
Colchester's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.69 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Colchester or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Salford City in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colchester's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Colchester
2
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 3, Salford City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 46%, Salford City 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Colchester) and 49% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Colchester keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Colchester have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Colchester's recent matches and 62% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Colchester's recent games and 49% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Salford City tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Salford City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Colchester 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 0-1 at Colchester Community Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.75 xG and Salford City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colchester fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 1.29 / defence 0.82 against Salford City attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 53% | Draw 24% | Salford City 24%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 33%, Salford City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.49 PPG, Salford City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.