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Poisson rates Oldham at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Crawley Town encounter.

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Match Analysis

Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Oldham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Oldham have won 0, Crawley Town 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Oldham in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 42% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 42% | Crawley Town 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.35 xG and Crawley Town 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.884 / defence 0.981 | Crawley Town attack 0.610 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Oldham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Oldham games / 34 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oldham 52% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 5.00. Oldham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.

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