Swindon Town 1-3 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Swindon Town take on Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swindon Town and Bradford meet at The County Ground in League Two, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town at The County Ground this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The County Ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The County Ground this season.
Bradford (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bradford have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Swindon Town's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swindon Town 62% and Bradford 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 46% | Bradford 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 0.94 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.823 / defence 1.155 | Bradford attack 0.689 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.123. Data: 13 Swindon Town games / 13 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 32% | Draw 39% | Bradford 29%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Bradford 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 50% | Bradford 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 32% | Draw 39% | Bradford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Swindon Town 0.94 / Bradford 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.823 / def 1.155 | Bradford attack 0.689 / def 1.146 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bradford xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Bradford kick off?
Swindon Town vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Bradford?
Swindon Town 1 - 3 Bradford.
Where is Swindon Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Bradford part of?
Swindon Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 32% chance of winning, Bradford a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Swindon Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Bradford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swindon Town and Bradford in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Bradford (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swindon Town's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.69x) against Swindon Town's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
39%
2.56
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
1.83
0.89
Bradford xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.89 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swindon Town come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 5D 2L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swindon Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Bradford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Swindon Town's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.77 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bradford in 62%.
Defensively: Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Bradford have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Bradford away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.00 PPG; Bradford away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bradford in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Swindon Town
1
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 4, Bradford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Swindon Town 5-4 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Bradford?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 50%, Bradford 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Swindon Town) and 33% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bradford in 33%; Swindon Town have failed to score in 33% of games; Bradford in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 33% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Swindon Town's recent games and 33% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Swindon Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Swindon Town 1-3 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 0.94 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bradford outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Bradford attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 32% | Draw 39% | Bradford 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 46%, Bradford 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Bradford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.