Sutton Utd 1-2 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VBS Community Stadium plays host to Sutton Utd versus Swindon Town in League Two, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sutton Utd's overall League Two record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd at VBS Community Stadium this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swindon Town have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 road games this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Sutton Utd, 1.70 for Swindon Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sutton Utd have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Swindon Town in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 46% versus Swindon Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 46% | Swindon Town 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.35 xG and Swindon Town 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.444 / defence 1.322 | Swindon Town attack 1.154 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Sutton Utd carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Sutton Utd games / 12 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 30% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Swindon Town 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sutton Utd 60% | Swindon Town 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 30% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Sutton Utd 1.35 / Swindon Town 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.444 / def 1.322 | Swindon Town attack 1.154 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Swindon Town xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town?
Sutton Utd 1 - 2 Swindon Town.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town part of?
Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 30% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sutton Utd and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Swindon Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sutton Utd and Swindon Town in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Swindon Town (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sutton Utd's attack at 1.44x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (1.15x) against Sutton Utd's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
30%
3.28
27%
3.69
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.98
1.62
Swindon Town xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.67
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 1.62 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Sutton Utd have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 6W 2D 3L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swindon Town's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.55 for Swindon Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sutton Utd have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — Swindon Town travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.18 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Swindon Town in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Swindon Town away?
Sutton Utd's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 2.40 PPG; Swindon Town away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sutton Utd have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Swindon Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 2, Swindon Town have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 3-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Swindon Town tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 60%, Swindon Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Sutton Utd) and 20% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Swindon Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sutton Utd's games and 60% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 20% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Sutton Utd 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Sutton Utd 1-2 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.35 xG and Swindon Town 1.62 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.44 / defence 1.32 against Swindon Town attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 30% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 42%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 46%, Swindon Town 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Swindon Town's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.82 PPG, Swindon Town 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.