Scunthorpe 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Sands Stadium to face Scunthorpe in League Two, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Scunthorpe have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Scunthorpe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Scunthorpe's home record at Sands Stadium: 1W 1D 4L from 6 League Two appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Crawley Town are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Scunthorpe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 46% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 38% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.94 xG and Crawley Town 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.683 / defence 1.370 | Crawley Town attack 0.848 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 1.123. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Scunthorpe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Scunthorpe games / 13 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 24% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Crawley Town 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Scunthorpe 33% | Crawley Town 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 24% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Scunthorpe 0.94 / Crawley Town 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.683 / def 1.370 | Crawley Town attack 0.848 / def 1.377 | league avg home 0.993 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Crawley Town xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town?
Scunthorpe 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town part of?
Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 24% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Scunthorpe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Scunthorpe and Crawley Town in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Scunthorpe's attack at 0.68x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.85x) against Scunthorpe's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
24%
4.23
34%
2.91
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
2.24
1.30
Crawley Town xG
4.23
24%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.61
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.30 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Scunthorpe come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Scunthorpe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Scunthorpe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Scunthorpe's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.67 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Scunthorpe
1
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Crawley Town 0-0 Scunthorpe.
Who has won more matches between Scunthorpe and Crawley Town?
Scunthorpe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Scunthorpe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Scunthorpe) and 33% (Crawley Town) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Scunthorpe and 33% for Crawley Town.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%; Scunthorpe have failed to score in 50% of games; Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 33% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 33% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Scunthorpe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Scunthorpe beat Crawley Town 2-1 at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.94 xG and Crawley Town 1.30 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Scunthorpe beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.68 / defence 1.37 against Crawley Town attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 24% | Draw 34% | Crawley Town 42%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Scunthorpe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 38%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Scunthorpe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.