Bradford 1-3 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Hartlepool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 13 as Bradford welcome Hartlepool to The Utilita Energy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bradford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's home record at The Utilita Energy Stadium: 3W 3D 0L from 6 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bradford are significantly better at The Utilita Energy Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hartlepool stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bradford at 1.30 PPG versus Hartlepool's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Bradford in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 58% versus Hartlepool 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bradford 42% | Hartlepool 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.55 xG and Hartlepool 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.234 / defence 1.132 | Hartlepool attack 0.511 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Bradford games / 12 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 59% | Draw 28% | Hartlepool 13%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.69 | Draw 3.57 | Hartlepool 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 83% | Hartlepool 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Utilita Energy Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 59% | Draw 28% | Hartlepool 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 38% | xG Bradford 1.55 / Hartlepool 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.234 / def 1.132 | Hartlepool attack 0.511 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Bradford (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Hartlepool xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Hartlepool kick off?
Bradford vs Hartlepool kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Hartlepool?
Bradford 1 - 3 Hartlepool.
Where is Bradford vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at The Utilita Energy Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Hartlepool part of?
Bradford vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 59% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bradford and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and Hartlepool in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hartlepool (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bradford's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Hartlepool's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
59%
1.70
28%
3.55
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.17
0.62
Hartlepool xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
3%
35.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bradford and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bradford and 0.62 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Hartlepool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford's recent record stands at 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 5L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.42 PPG, Hartlepool on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bradford have managed 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hartlepool's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 0.92 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Hartlepool away?
Bradford's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.00 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Bradford or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bradford's record when hosting Hartlepool specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Hartlepool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Bradford 2-2 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Hartlepool?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 83%, Hartlepool 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Bradford and 17% for Hartlepool.
On the defensive side: Hartlepool in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Bradford's recent matches and 17% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bradford's recent games and 17% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hartlepool cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool beat Bradford 1-3 at The Utilita Energy Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.55 xG and Hartlepool 0.62 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hartlepool outscored their 0.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.23 / defence 1.13 against Hartlepool attack 0.51 / defence 1.26, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 59% | Draw 28% | Hartlepool 13%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Hartlepool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 42%, Hartlepool 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hartlepool's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.42 PPG, Hartlepool 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hartlepool win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hartlepool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.