Northampton 3-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 3W 1D 2L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
On current form, Northampton have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 33% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Northampton 25% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.22 xG and Stevenage 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.924 / defence 1.104 | Stevenage attack 0.622 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Northampton games / 12 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 21%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Stevenage 4.76. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 33% | Stevenage 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 1.22 / Stevenage 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.924 / def 1.104 | Stevenage attack 0.622 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Northampton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Stevenage xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stevenage kick off?
Northampton vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Northampton 3 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Northampton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stevenage part of?
Northampton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.92x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.00
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.95
0.73
Stevenage xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Northampton and 0.73 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Northampton by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.92 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stevenage away?
Northampton's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.67 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Stevenage in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Northampton 33% BTTS, Stevenage 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Northampton and 50% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stevenage in 33%; Stevenage in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Northampton's recent matches and 33% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Northampton's recent games and 50% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Northampton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Stevenage 3-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.22 xG and Stevenage 0.73 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 0.62 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 46% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 21%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 25%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.