Stevenage 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Crawley Town meet at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Crawley Town arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Crawley Town 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 48% | Crawley Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.10 xG and Crawley Town 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.975 / defence 1.343 | Crawley Town attack 0.895 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.140. Data: 25 Stevenage games / 23 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 28% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 40%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Crawley Town 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 50% | Crawley Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 28% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Stevenage 1.10 / Crawley Town 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.975 / def 1.343 | Crawley Town attack 0.895 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Crawley Town xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Crawley Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Crawley Town part of?
Stevenage vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 28% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stevenage and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.97) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.90x) against Stevenage's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.13
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.47
1.37
Crawley Town xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.37 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 3W 9D 11L from 23 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 9L across 23 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crawley Town by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 65%.
Last 23 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 3W 9D 11L in their last 23 games (0.78 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.25 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Stevenage 3-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Crawley Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 58%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 33% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 33% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Crawley Town 2-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.10 xG and Crawley Town 1.37 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 28% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 40%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 48%, Crawley Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.